[This is a roundup of news articles and other materials circulating on Turkey and reflects a wide variety of opinions. It does not reflect the views of the Turkey Page Editors or of Jadaliyya. You may send your own recommendations for inclusion in each week`s roundup to turkey@jadaliyya.com by Sunday night of every week.]
English
Election Results and Coalition Scenarios
The AK Party`s Dilemmas Burhanettin Duran claims that the primary challenge facing the AKP is the possibility that party elites will also begin to question the authority of Erdoğan.
The Coalition, But How? According to Erdal Tanas Karagöl, the formation of a coalition will lead to a regression of the economic development brought about by the AKP over the past thirteen years.
Turkey Female MPs Elected in Record Numbers: Who Are They? Rengin Arslan profiles female members of parliament from the HDP, CHP, and AKP, and describes the obstacles women in Turkey face in gaining political representation.
Will The AKP Engage in Self-Recrimination? Cafer Solgun asks whether the AKP will use the election results to admit its political mistakes and to appraise them in order to recover its legitimacy.
Erdoğan Lost a Battle, But Perhaps Not the War Mustafa Akyol suggests that President Erdoğan is counting on the impossibility of the formation of a coalition government in order for the AKP to win a parliamentary majority in a “rerun” election.
The Hangover Arguing that an early election may not result in a more favorable distribution of seats in parliament, Emre Gönen claims that the stability of the government may not reside in the opposition parties’ pursuit of “restoration.”
Kılıçdaroğlu Opts for a Political Collision Course İlnur Çevik suggests that the CHP and the other opposition parties are attempting to deadlock politics in Turkey instead of being open to the prospect of a coalition with the AKP.
What Should the AK Party Do? Nagehan Alçı asserts that the best course of action for the AKP is not to allow a few controversial statements to change its goals, but rather to persist with its approach to politics.
What To Do? What Not To Do? (1) - (2) Ali Bayramoğlu writes that the opposition parties are trying to undo the reconciliatory culture that the AKP brought to politics, the absence of which made previous coalition governments unstable and weak.
HDP: Focus of Left-Wing Opposition beyond Kurdish Mobilization Cuma Çiçek argues that the rise of the HDP in Turkey is part and parcel of the “Kurdish spring” in neighboring countries.
Coalition Calculations Imagining possible scenarios for a coalition government, Yahya Bostan claims that the Kurdish peace and reconciliation process may be the issue that prohibits the formation of a coalition.
Erdoğan Is the Red Line Examining the collapse of past coalition governments, Abdülkadir Selvi asserts that “the opposition is trying to set a trap for [the AKP] about the Erdoğan issue.”
Pros and Cons of a Coalition for the Economy According to Cemil Ertem, a weak coalition government will cause foreign investors to withdraw from the Turkish economy, thereby causing a collapse of the AKP’s economic accomplishments over the past thirteen years.
Compromise Taha Özhan suggests that the opposition parties are using the concept of compromise as a pretext to corner the AKP in talks over the formation of a coalition government.
How Will the HDP Bring Peace to Turkey? Akif Beki argues that interventions from the PKK leadership in the Kandil mountains have made it impossible for the HDP to fulfill its election promises: namely, that of bringing peace.
Erdoğan Reaps What He Sowed Semih İdiz writes that the opposition party leaders’ refusal to cooperate with Erdoğan in building the coalition is a consequence of Erdoğan’s aggression and his violation of the constitutionally mandated impartiality of the presidency.
Possibility for a New AK Party İhsan Aktaş claims that domestic politics determined the first decade of AKP’s rule and suggests that the AKP take a more global approach in upcoming years in order to remain the most visionary party in Turkish politics.
Who Will Be the AK Party`s Dance Partner? Etyen Mahçupyan claims that tensions between the CHP and the MHP regarding the AKP’s openness to coalition negotiations will determine the result of those negotiations.
Why Choose the AK Party and the MHP Coalition? Erol Göka asserts that a coalition between the AKP and MHP is necessary because “it provides an opportunity to switch to the sociological framework of the presidential system” proposed by Erdoğan.
The Message Turkey Will Deliver to the World According to Serkan Demirtaş, although the AKP-MHP coalition government seems most probable and would function “harmoniously,” it would be detrimental to the democratization of Turkish politics.
`Turkish Peace Process` Needed Nuray Mert argues that Turkish politics in recent years constituted a “civil war without weapons,” necessitating a Turkish peace process to restore democratic mechanisms to the country.
Parliamentary Speaker Elections a Litmus Test for a Coalition Murat Yetkin examines debates about the coalition government and the prospect of an early election and suggests that the 17 and 25 December graft probes against four ministers in Erdoğan in 2013 remain key bargaining points for the opposition parties.
The Dilemma`s of Turkey`s Nationalist Party Barçın Yinanç contends that the MHP’s anti-Kurdish stance has made it into a single issue party, damaging the party’s sustainability and political vitality.
Abdullah Gül’s Return to Politics
The First Book on AKP Years: Has Pandora`s Box Opened? Murat Yetkin claims that Ahmet Sever’s new book on Abdullah Gül will be a source of tension and debate for the AKP during the coalition discussions.
What Is Gül`s Next Move? Cafer Solgun faults Abdullah Gül for not taking a harsher stance against the increasing authoritarianism of the AKP under his presidency.
Bombshell Book Exposes Gül`s Differences with Erdoğan Cengiz Çandar suggests that the revelations contained in the new memoir about Abdullah Gül’s presidency could shatter the image of the AKP’s unity and damage its political legitimacy.
Will Abdullah Gül Return to Politics? Semih İdiz argues that chances are slim for Gül’s return to politics because of his deference to the AKP and because of all the controversies currently surrounding the new book about him.
How Gül Differed from Erdoğan According to Mustafa Akyol, the new memoir about Abdullah Gül has been criticized by Erdoğan supporters for supposedly trying to fragment the AKP, as well as by Erdoğan critics who see the book as an effort to rebrand the AKP.
Post-Election Kurdish Politics
What Caused the Clashes in Diyarbakır? Mahmut Bozarslan suggests that the violence in Diyarbakır, such as the murder of Aytaç Baran, president of an NGO affiliated with the religious Kurdish Hüda-Par, is an effort to capitalize upon animosity between Hüda-Par and the PKK.
Will PKK Let Kurdish Politics Move Away from Violence? Metin Gürcan advises the Kurdish movement, as well as Kurdish people, to learn a lesson from the transformation of Turkish civil-military relations in order to disarm the PKK.
Erdoğan`s Kurdish Blind Spot Ömer Taşpınar claims that recent developments in Syrian Kurdistan, in addition to Erdoğan’s divisive rhetoric on the Kurdish issue in Turkey, lost the AKP votes in the election and essentially ended the peace process.
A Setback for Kurdish Self-Rule Jonathan Friedman and Neil Quilliam contend that the HDP’s unexpected performance in Turkey’s elections will fragment transnational Kurdish politics due to the polarization between PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan and the President of Iraqi Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani.
Liberation of Tal Abyad
Erdoğan Fears Fall of Syria`s Tell Abyad According to Fehim Taştekin, President Erdoğan is angry that IS has been driven out of Tal Abyad because it acted as a buffer zone against elements perceived to be enemies to Turkey, such as the YPG/YPJ.
Turkey Catches Same Old Illness: Kurdish Phobia Lale Kemal argues that the gains made in Syrian Kurdistan may strengthen the PKK and damage the Kurdish peace process in Turkey, which was already at a stalemate.
Fleeing Through the Eye of A Needle A series of photos by Bülent Kılıç showing Syrian civilians attempting to enter the border of Turkey through a hole in the border fence after ISIS prevented them from entering through the border gates.
We Cannot Sit Back and Watch This Humanitarian Tragedy Cemil Ertem asserts that the “Kurdification” of the region formerly controlled by IS will destabilize the region and endanger energy supplies from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey.
Will the YPG Let Refugees from Tal Abyad Go Back to Their Homes? Claiming that Kurdish forces conducted ethnic cleansing and burned down villages to maintain their control of the region, Merve Şebnem Oruç doubts that refugees from the region will be allowed back.
Tel Abyad/Kobani...The Government That Cannot Express Its Problems Kemal Öztürk writes that the Syrian Kurdish government (PYD),supported by a coalition of domestic and international actors working with the HDP in Turkey, is attempting to disintegrate Syria and “Kurdify” the region through violence.
Turkey Faces New Reality in Syria Semih İdiz suggests that the post-election Turkish government will have to work with Kurds in Syria, rather than relying on jihadists, in order to topple the Assad regime.
Syrian Refugees Allowed Into Turkey, ISIL Blocks Entry Refik Tekin’s pictures capture thousands of Syrian refugees, who had been waiting for days on the Turkish border.
Turkish
Election Results and Coalition Scenarios
TÜSİAD ve MÜSİAD’ın ittifak kurması şaşırtıcı olmaz(1)-(2) An interview with Bülent Küçük on coalition debates, finance and market relations in the wake of the election, and the implications of the HDP’s entry into Parliament.
Kadınlı HDP’li bir Türkiye umut yaratıyor Zilar Sterk suggests that the elected women parliamentarians in the HDP and the HPD’s gender politics create hope for the future of Turkey.
7 Haziran süreci According to Adil Bayram, a democratic Turkey could be achieved with a coalition between the HDP, CHP, and AKP within which the HPD and CHP would play a historic role.
Muhafazakâr, İslamcı, AKP`li eşitliği kırılıyor In an interview, Nilüfer Göle argues that the 7 June election broke down the “conservative=Islamist=AKP supporter” formula.
Vebali CHP ile MHP`nin boynunadır According to Baskın Oran, the CHP and MHP should form a coalition, which would be supported by the HPD.
HDP`nin Meclis temsiliyeti ve makro siyaseti Ozan Horoz suggests that the HDP’s victory lies not only in macro politics and parliamentary representation, but in its constituents including grassroots movements such as workers’ movement, women’s movement, cultural and democratic rights struggle, and struggle against urban transformation projects.
Zor koalisyon/lar dönemi Writing that forming and maintaining a coalition government is very difficult, Hasan Bülent Kahraman argues that an AKP-MHP coalition seems the mostly likely, natural, and easy one.
AKP’sizleşme gereği Güneş Duru argues that all parties, namely the CHP, MHP, and HPD, should form a coalition in one way or another in order to erase the AKP from the political scene altogether.
Yeni yaşam, yeni koalisyon ve zıtların birlikteliği Cem Kirazoğlu argues that a coalition between the HPD and MHP—which seems the most unlikely since the HPD is pro-Kurdish and the MHP is nationalist—could bring peace to Turkey.
AK Parti-CHP koalisyonu: İmkânsızın siyaseti mi? According to Tanju Tosun, an AKP-CHP coalition could seriously ruin the CHP in the longer term and it could even leave the CHP below the electoral threshold in the next election.
AKP ve CHP liderleri HDP`den gelen sese kulak vermeli Hasan Cemal suggests that the AKP and the CHP should listen to and take seriously the HDP’s coalition offers.
Washington hangi koalisyonu tercih eder? According to Ömer Taşpınar, Washington’s preference is an AKP-CHP coalition, whereas it does not support any coalition in which the MHP takes a role since the MHP would cut off Turkey from the peace process and Western norms.
HDP’ye karşı koalisyon savaş koalisyonu olur Veysi Sarısözen argues that a coalition against the HPD would only be a “war coalition.”
Hükümet Senaryoları… (1) AKP–MHP koalisyonu: Kim kimi yutar? İhsan Dağı argues that an AKP-MHP coalition is a flawed one, since although these two parties look alike they are actually rivals; additionally, MHP voters are more inclined to secularism whereas the AKP has a more religious base.
Sermaye kuşatmasında koalisyona adım adım! İhsan Çaralan writes that big investment groups support an AKP-CHP coalition, while any coalition with the HPD does not get the same support from business and finance circles.
Büyük sermaye, hükümet ve istikrar! Ahmet Yaşaroğlu points out that interest and investment groups are lobbying for an AKP-CHP coalition and their second preference is an AKP-MHP coalition.
Türkiye`de ilk defa, gerçek anlamda "koalisyon" konuşuyoruz Fuat Keyman thinks that an AKP-CHP coalition is the best formula that can guarantee economic stability, national security against ISIS, and the continuity of the peace and reconciliation process.
Erken/tekrar seçim olursa… Ruşen Çakır writes that if the parties cannot form a coalition government Turkey will face an early or re-election, and such an early/re-election is a risk rather than an opportunity for the AKP.
AKP-MHP Koalisyonu: AKP’nin ilk, MHP’nin son seçeneği Kürşad Zorlu argues that an AKP-MHP coalition is the AKP’s first and the MHP’s last preference.
Muhafazakâr Kürtler, Türkiyelilik ve HDP Çetin Çeko analyzes the increase in the HDP’s votes and examines the different coalition scenarios from the HDP’s perspective.
Karayılan ne demiş oldu? Alper Görmüş analyzes the statement by the chairman of the KCK Executive Council, Murat Karayılan, on coalition scenarios and the HDP’s role in the parliament.
HDP devrimi, AK Parti devrimi Mucahit Bilici argues that the AKP was seriously defeated at the ballot box because it utilized religion during its election campaign.
Abdullah Gül’s Return to Politics
Abdullah Gül sahneye çıkarken… Hasan Cemal argues that the 7 June election was the beginning of the end for President Erdoğan, whereas it opened up a new opportunity for former President Abdullah Gül to continue doing politics in the AKP and seek the Prime Ministry.
Gül’le de güle oynaya erken seçime gidilmez Veysi Sarısözen argues that the “Gül factor” popped up when the AKP entered into a deadlock situation, and going through an early election, whether with Erdoğan, Gül, or Davutoğlu, does not really differ without a writing democratic constitution and guaranteeing the future of the peace process.
Gül’ün bitmek bilmeyen dönüş hazırlığı ve bizim hüzünlü demokrasi umudumuz Hakan Aksay argues that although Abdullah Gül is more moderate and tolerant than Erdoğan, getting excited by Gül’s return to politics is still a desperate hope for democratization.
Gül, baskı rejiminin kurulmasında görev aldı Criticizing the attempts to bring Abdullah Gül back as a “political actor,” Emrah Altındiş reminds that Gül worked and cooperated with Erdoğan for years, and adds: #resistmemory.
Gül’ün gelip bizi kurtarmasını bekliyorsak Allah sabır versin… Mert Yıldız argues that the high unemployment rate is a by-product of the AKP’s policies, within which Abdullah Gül also played an important role, and now we are doomed to fail if we “wait for Abdullah Gül to save us.”
Liberation of Tal Abyad
Tel Abyad gerçeği: Türkiye`den IŞİD`e `canlı kalkan` desteği! Celal Başlangıç criticizes Turkey’s closing its borders to Arab and Turkmen refugees fleeing from ISIS, as well as the mainstream media’s explicit concern for the Kurds’ seizure of Tal Abyad from ISIS.
Gül, yeni özel savaş aktörü olma yolunda Hüseyin Ali writes that Turkey is so upset at the PYD’s taking control of Tal Abyad, as well as the unification of Cizre and Kobane Cantons, and argues that Abdullah Gül returned to politics at such a critical moment in order to be a “special war actor.”
Tel Ebyad: Fırsatlar ve Tehditler Erhan Keleşoğlu points out that the YPG’s victory over ISIS in Tal Abyad promises a real opportunity for peace in the region and that Turkey should see this as an opportunity rather than seeing Kurdish armed forces as a threat.
Erdoğan-Davutoğlu ikilisinin Suriye politikası bir kez daha iflas etti! (1)-(2) Criticizing Turkey’s support for ISIS, Hasan Cemal argues that what really upsets President Erdoğan is that the Turkey-Syria border belt will now be inhabited and controlled not by ISIS but by PYD-PKK.
Erdoğan da dahil IŞİD’i tercih edenlerin asıl korkusu ne? Fehim Işık criticizes those who prefer ISIS over the PYD as a border neighbor, including President Erdoğan and the mainstream media.
Ne sorayım valime! Pınar Öğünç reports on the arrest of four journalists, including herself, for their reporting on the Governor of Urfa’s statement that refugees are fleeing from PYD-PKK and American bombardment, and not from ISIS violence.
Suriye sınırında ne oluyor, Türkiye’yi nasıl etkiler… (1)-(2) Analyzing the developments in Syria and their effects on Turkey, Mete Çubukçu argues that Turkey should open its borders to refugees and implement a new Syrian policy because the previous one failed.
Tel Abyad: Erdoğan-Davutoğlu`na bir yenilgi daha… “Erdoğan-Davutoğlu kept the Akcakale-Tal Abyad border open during “Turkey’s neighboring with ISIS” but fell into “border threat” discourse when Kurds took over control, and their Syrian policy is failing again and again,” writes Cengiz Çandar.
Tel Ebyad için yol haritası Fehim Taştekin reports that PYD co-president Salih Müslim rejects all accusations against the PYD of carrying out ethnic cleansing in Syria.
Kobanê ve Cizîre Nazan Üstündağ celebrates the unification of Kobane and Cizre Cantons, and criticizes Turkey’s media’s hate discourse against the PYD’s liberation of Tal Abyad from ISIS.
IŞİD Türkiye’de Allah sizi korusun Reporting from the Akcakale/Tal Abyad border, Ahmet Şık argues that ISIS militants entered into Turkey by camouflaging themselves as refugees.
Suriye siyasetinin sonu Kürtlerin elinden oluyor Murat Yetkin suggests that Kurds taking control of Tal Abyad from ISIL reveals that Kurds will eventually put an end to politics in Syria.
"PYD, IŞİD`den tehlikeli" demek, yeni bir strateji mi… “Is saying ‘The PYD is more dangerous than ISIS” a new strategy?” asks Oral Çalışlar.
Other Pertinent Pieces
Diyarbakır saldırısının ardındaki korkunç gerçek Ezgi Başaran argues that the state is real responsible for the bomb explosion at the HPD’s Diyarbakir rally, which caused four deaths and hundreds of injuries, since it did not interrogate, and instead showed leniency, for ISIS militants in Turkey, one of whom is responsible for what happened in Diyarbakır.
Gezi’deki ‘devlet şiddeti’ tanıklıkları bir kitapta toplandı: ‘Polis Destan Yazdı’ Testimonies of fifty-six civilians witnessing police and state violence during the Gezi Park protests is gathered in a new book titled Polis Destan Yazdı.
Evlere cenaze gelmiyor! Hayko Bağdat lists all those who were killed or seriously injured during the HDP’s election campaign.
Published on Jadaliyya
First Thoughts on the Elections in Turkey: A Roundtable
Refugees in Turkey: Implications of Increasing Politicization
HDP’nin programina evet diyen muhafazakarlar, kadin, Alevi ve LGBTI’lerle esitlige de evet diyor